What started off as an inactive Hurricane season is not looking to be an active one this month. There are two Tropical Storm Erin which is approaching South Texas and another tropical system that may intensify into a strong Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Erin, which formed in the western Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, was moving in a northwesterly direction and expected to make landfall in South Texas tomorrow, Thursday. It is about 210 miles south of Galveston, so, I will be OK. All I will be getting is the rain. The problem with Tropical Storm Erin it will bring heavy rains to South Texas, something that is not needed in that region. So there are is a very good chance flooding might occur in South Texas. So to my readers in South Texas, please that care and if you are not aware of you need to be doing over, the City of Corpus Christi has already issued a boil water advisory for all areas of the city as a precautionary measure until further notice. Citizens can receive on-going information about the water boil advisory on the city website at www.cctexas.com or 826-INFO or 826-CITY during normal business hours.

The Brownsville Herald offers some useful advice.

The bigger story is Tropical Storm Dean. The storm has already strengthened to 60 mph and is starting to form an eyewall and if you look at the chart it looks like it will become a hurricane at any time. Fellow Houstonian Eric Berger is having the same worries as I am having.

The bigger concern, as far as I see it, is Tropical Storm Dean, which has strengthened into a 60-mph tropical system this morning and is moving into conditions even more favorable for continual intensification. In five days the hurricane center’s best guess is that Dean will be in the northern Caribbean, between Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.

Given the warmer water and lessening wind shear, the official forecast calls for a 115-mph, category-3 hurricane, but then hastens to add that because of the favorable conditions, Dean could be “notably stronger” than this.

The bad news is that the Gulf of Mexico is still warmer (I’ll do a full analysis this afternoon), and if Dean reaches the Gulf the United States will likely face a blow from a major hurricane. Although the models remain unreliable forecasting longer than five days, and Dean probably wouldn’t reach the Gulf for a week, the storm’s trend is clearly in our direction.

All I know, I will be keeping my out for Dean.

Update: Now that Tropical Storm Erin is downgraded to a tropical depression because it has now made landfall Texas is bracing for torrential downpours and flash flooding. The weather service issued a a flash flood watch for 33 counties through Friday morning. This includes the already soaked Texas Hill Country because of the never ending rain that has occurred this summer.

Counties that are under a Flash Flood Watch in South Texas:
Aransas… Bee… Calhoun… Duval… Goliad… Jim Wells…Kleberg… La Salle… Live Oak… McMullen… Nueces… Refugio…San Patricio… Victoria and Webb counties.

Counties that are under a Flash Flood Watch for South Central Texas:
Atascosa… Bandera… Bastrop… Bexar… Blanco… Burnet… Caldwell… Comal… De Witt… Dimmit… Edwards… Fayette… Frio… Gillespie… Gonzales… Guadalupe… Hays… Karnes… Kendall… Kerr… Kinney… Lavaca… Lee… Llano… Maverick… Medina… Real… Travis… Uvalde… Val Verde… Williamson… Wilson and Zavala counties.

My county, Harris, is also under Flash Flood Watch.

Update 2: After Erin made it inland, it looks like my surrounding the area got hit pretty hard. Especially, were I live. I am literally flooded in. A lot of the heavy rain fell in the Houston area and elsewhere along the Texas Gulf Coast.

At 1030 am CDT… National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that very heavy rain was falling from a band of showers and thunderstorms over southwestern portions of Harris County. High water was reported near US-59 and Shepherd. Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches are possible from these storms.

Flooding is expected in or near… the medical center (where I live)… reliant park… minute maid park… Memorial… hobby Airport… Herman Park… the galleria… Ellington Field… Addicks… Spring Valley… Southside Place… South Houston… Piney Point Village… Hunters Creek Village… Houston… Hilshire Village… Hedwig Village… Bunker Hill Village and Bellaire.

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