Could the Republican Party Win Back the Latino Vote
Put forth on March 12, 2008 by XicanoPwr
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Elections 2008, Latino vote, Raza, Republican
Recently, political pundits have been asking if the Republican party lost the Latino vote. It is hard to deny that the Latino electorate has become a coveted political force. Between 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush increased his support from the Hispanic population by 7.8 percentage points. In the same period, the Republicans only received an increase in party affiliation of 1.6 percentage points. It has been reported that the Latino vote represented as much as 11 percent of the total electorate in the 2006 General elections, up from 6 percent in 2000.
According to a new study conducted this year by the New Democrat Network, the Hispanic electorate preferred the Democratic Party to the GOP by 70 percent to 30 percent. The million-dollar question going into the 2008 election is can the Republicans, because of their nativist stance on immigration, make up their lost Hispanic votes?
Historical Preceptive
Things began eroding for the Republican Party soon after Bush’s re-election. However, things started to unravel when the debate over immigration reform divided the Republican Party. When the House passed the “Sensenbrenner Bill,” which criminalized all undocumented immigrants. The bill sparked an immigration movement that led to the huge marches in the Spring of 2006. These marches were considered to one of largest civic demonstrations in the US in more than a generation. In some states and cities, one of the largest civic demonstrations in the state’s and city’s history. Soon after these marches, in GOP led states, many ads began appearing, comparing Mexican immigrants to Islamic terrorists.
Key Republican strategists began voicing their concern that the GOP was alienating their Hispanic base on the immigration issue. In August 2007, top Hispanic Republicans in Texas began voicing their distrust of both the state and national Republican Party. One of Texas’ biggest Latino Republican backers, Latino Republican Massey Villarreal, Hispanic vice chair of the Bush/Cheney campaign and deputy vice chair of the Republican National Convention, announced he would be supporting Democrat Rick Noriega instead of Senator Cornyn in the 2008 elections. Reggie Gonzales, President of the Texas National Hispanic Republican Assembly, urged his fellow Republicans to “vote independently” this election year to send the Republican Party a message. Moreover, if they are still unwilling to listen, then they should consider starting their “own party,” reminiscent of the La Raza Unida Party of the late 1970s.
In a run up to the 2006, general election, a Pew Hispanic Center survey revealed that Hispanics in general had felt “significantly discontented” with both national political parties, but more so with the Republican Party. Many expressed there was an increase in discrimination as a result of the immigration debate. Later that year, the Republican Party paid the price in the November 2006 general election.
In wake of their defeat, which led to a Democrat control congress, Florida Senator Mel Martinez, a first-generation Cuban American, was appointed Chair of the Republican National Committee, hoping to smooth things over with their Hispanic base. However, Latino fears were confirmed as some conservatives objected to Martinez’s selection due to his positions on immigration. One year later, following the resignation of another top Latino official, former Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales, Martinez resigned from his position after he had expressed his frustration over the hard-line stands his party had on immigration. Robert de Posada, president of the Republican-leaning Latino Coalition, was quoted in the Los Angeles Times as saying, “The message that it sends is Latinos are not welcome. The radical conservative base has a temporary victory right now.”
It’s all about the Veep
This leads back to our starting question: can the Republicans, because of their nativist stance on immigration, make up their lost Hispanic votes? Many would argue that it would take a political miracle to win back the Latino vote; however, there are a few Republican diehards that do have faith that the new Republican presidential nominee, John McCain, can bring them back.
The system of selecting a vice president can assist a party win an election. The vice presidential choice often is made to balance the ticket. Sometimes the vice presidential candidate is chosen because the person is thought to appeal to a large bloc of voters. Now that John McCain won the Republican nomination, whom would he choose as his running mate?
Recently, McCain was asked if he was willing to consider sharing the ticket with Senator John Kerry, since Kerry had approached McCain about being his running mate in 2004. McCain quickly said no.
“He is, as he describes himself, a liberal Democrat,” Mr. McCain said, adding that he meant no offense by the term. “I am a conservative Republican. So when I was approached, when we had that conversation back in 2004, that’s why I never even considered such a thing.”
As many Americans seem eager to rally behind the President, due partly to the dramatic shifts in the public mood triggered by the latest crisis in the credit markets, high unemployment, a housing bubble that has burst, and a likely recession.
Republicans have a history of throwing a curve balls when choosing their running mates. This dates back to Ronald Reagan’s selection of George Herbert Walker Bush. With the advise of Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, everybody expected the creation of a “dream ticket” with former president Gerald Ford running as Ronald Reagan’s vice president, however, Reagan did a 180 and selected his primary opponent, George H W Bush instead.
There are times selecting a vice present does not necessarily produce the person best qualified to serve as vice president. When George H W Bush selected Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as Bush’s running mate, he totally caught the media and political pundits off guard. Like his father, the younger Bush also surprised everybody with his Vice President selection. When political pundits figured it would be Missouri Senator John Danforth who would get the nod, like his father, Dubya also did a 180 and selected Dick Cheney, the man responsible of Bush’s selection process for Vice President.
Will John McCain pick be a surprise too? It is possible. In 2005, the Washington Post ran an article about the possibility of a McCain/Jeb Bush ticket. The article laid out a series of events (scenarios) that would need to occur for this to happen.
Scenario 1: Iraq shows will have to show no sign of turning around quickly. Bush would like to hand over power to a president committed to his Iraq policy. — From the time the article was written, the situation in Iraq has worsen. In an interview with NBC News, President George W Bush stated that the US “could easily” stay in Iraq for ten or more years. As for seeking a successor who is willing to continue his Iraq policy, it seems John McCain has decided to step up to the plate. In January, McCain was quoted as saying the US could stay in Iraq for “maybe a hundred years” and that “would be fine with me.”
Scenario 2: Income growth for the Middle-class will continue to be sluggish, – McCain has shown he is not a total Bush clone. He has been vocal on Bush’s tax policies. Before Mitt Romney dropped out of the race, Romney criticized McCain for opposing President Bush’s tax cuts. However, he is considered to be the most fiscally conservative members of the Senate.
Scenario 3: Bush would well come to see McCain as the only Republican with a chance to push a Republican era forward. McCain, in turn, knows that his only way around the Republican right is to run with either Bush’s blessing and/or endorsement. — Last month, the whole Bush family had welcomed John McCain with open arms. The first Bush to publicly endorsed McCain was former Gov Jeb Bush. Soon after, Former President George H.W. Bush, the Republican political dynasty’s patriarch, publicly endorsed Sen. John McCain for president. Finally, President Bush endorsed Sen. John McCain for president saying that McCain has the “character, courage and perseverance” to lead the country.
From the look of things, all three scenario have actually occurred.
What does Bush bring to the table
Jeb Bush was considered one of the most sought-after endorsements ahead the presidential primary season, now that John McCain has received Bush’s blessing, this could be considered as a way winning over George W. Although Jeb Bush has indicated he has no intentions in running for president in 2008, however, he still has not ruled “in or out” if would consider running for vice president in 2008. It is no secret that the elder Bush has been planting seeds for a possible Jeb campaign.
Last year, after his last public event speech, Jeb Bush, was asked by Spanish-speaking reporters what were his plans for the future. His response “Yo no tengo futuro.” He retracted a week later, saying he “misunderstood” the reporter’s question, according to the New York Times.
As the campaign season kicks into gear, one would think the Republican Party would try to distance themselves from the Bush name, especially when voters have plenty to take out on Republican candidates – financial crisis, rising gas prices, and Bush’s unpopular war. Even though the American people may be experiencing “Bush fatigue,” Republican insiders would most likely have no problems running Jeb Bush, who had a 60% approval rating when he left office. Strategically, running Jeb Bush now could be seen as a win-win situation for him. If McCain won, once McCain leaves office, Jeb would have made a name for himself allowing him to run either in 2012 or 2016. If McCain lost, Jeb would still have enhanced national recognition for him to run in 2012.
The Republican Party knows they will not be able to win without the Latino vote. If a John McCain/Jeb Bush ticket were to come into fruition, their secret weapon in their fight for the Latino electorate would be Jeb Bush’s is his 31-year-old son, George P. Bush or just “P.,” as his family calls him. The son of Florida governor Jeb Bush and his wife, Columba Bush, a native of Guanajuanto, Mexico, George P is one of the grandchildren President Bush referred to as the “little brown ones” during his presidency.
During his uncle’s 2000 campaign, P. was everywhere and was considered to be on his way to becoming the family’s biggest star. It is true politicians have used their children for such ends, but P. has a WOW factor. With a John McCain/Jeb Bush ticket, George P. Bush would once again be utilized as a symbol of diversity to court young and Latino voters.
P. will obviously have factor in his favor: He’s eye candy. During the 2000 campaign, the media would lob him softball questions. Even more valuable is his performance: P.’s is a natural on the stump, and this was seen during the GOP’s national convention. Before his uncle accepted the Republican nomination P. delivered a bilingual speech about inclusion and diversity.
“I am an American,” Bush said to a delighted crowd, “but like many, I come from a diverse background. And I’m really proud of it, and I respect leaders who respect my heritage.”
He also spoke of the commitment both he and his uncle have to education. “My uncle and I share emails,” George P. said, “and they’re not about the Florida Marlins or the Texas Rangers. They’re about education. It’s an interest that I share with my uncle and my dad.”
George P. called George W., “a good man, un hombre de grande sentimientos, who loves his family and his country.”
As he concluded his brief remarks, he exhorted the cheering delegates with a message that combined family and country: “Now is the time to restore a sense of honor and decency to the White House. We can do that by electing my uncle the next president of the United States. Que viva W! Que viva Bush! Que viva los Estados Unidos.“
Before George P. Bush married his law school classmate, Amanda “Mandi” Williams, P. was No. 4 on People magazine’s list of the “Top 100 Eligible Bachelors.”
During Dubya’s re-election campaign, George P. was barely seen on the campaign trail. This was done on purpose because the then 28-year-old would have been asked why George P. wasn’t serving in Iraq if he so much of a patriot. No doubt, these were legitimate questions. However, he has answered his anti-war critics. Last year, Politico reported that George P. Bush joined the Naval Reserve. He also called the death of Pat Tillman, the NFL player and Army Ranger who was killed in a friendly fire incident in Afghanistan in 2004, “a wake-up call.”
What will make P attractive to Latino voters is his pride in his Latino heritage and the fact he is the grandson of a Mexican migrant worker, Jose Maria Garnica, who separated from his wife and still lives in Mexico. If played right, he will once again serve as a new face for the GOP. Another reason why Hispanics may be willing to vote for a McCain/Bush ticket, he is also very outspoken about the immigration issue, actually sounding more like a Democrat than a Republican does.
In a four-day swing through Mexico in 2004, P criticized the Border Patrol’s use of guns which fire plastic pellets packed with chili powder.
“If there has been American approval for this policy, that is reprehensible,” Mr Bush said. “It’s kind of barbarous.” He blamed the use of the guns on “some local INS [immigration service] guy who’s trying to be tough, act macho.” In fact, the use of the guns is federal policy.
There is not doubt that the Hispanic population is booming and is considered to be a swing vote this election season. Using the Texas Democratic Primary as a barometer, the Latino vote proved to be a significant voting bloc. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can equally claim that the Latino vote were factors in their electoral gains. The Texas border region was the determinant factor in Hillary Clinton’s victory in the Texas primary. Whereas, “Urban Latinos” helped Obama “push the margin of difference between him and Clinton to just three points.”
While it is being reported that Republican insiders are are urging McCain to choose a female running mate as a way to counter a possible Democratic Dream Ticket, history has shown these are just tactics to distract the public and media alike. I would not be surprised if John McCain were to surprise everybody and pick Jeb Bush and neither would James Carville.
If McCain were to ask Jeb Bush to be his running mate and if he were to accept, the Democratic Party will surely have a battle to win the hearts and minds of the Latino electorate. If the only way to counter this, I would recommend that either Clinton or Obama find some way to utilize New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson to the fullest extent.
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Tags: Bush Dynasty, Elections, GOP, Hispanic, immigration issue, Jeb Bush, John McCain, latino vote, latinos, Republicans, Vice President | 
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This is the blog of Edmundo "XicanoPwr" Rocha, a social worker, an activist, freelance writer and founder and editor of The Sanctuary. My interests include: immigration reform, critical race theory and it's interaction with equality/inequality and freedom/oppression as they relate to the experiences of people of color in the Americas.
Para Justicia y Libertad is a Latino-centered political blog focusing on the humanistic perspective of politics, history, and society as they relate to the Latina/o community throughout Texas and the United States.
10 Responses to “Could the Republican Party Win Back the Latino Vote”
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Excellent post XP and a harbinger of what’s likely to play out in this election.
While the mainstream media banters about Mitt Romney as a possible V.P. candidate and how such selection would appease the conservative Republican Party factions and contribute towards the strengthening of the party and their prospects for remaining in the White House, I find your analysis a strategy of worthy consideration by the McCain handlers.
The selection of former Gov. Jeb Bush would go far with Latinos who would suddenly be faced with a ticket that features a Presidential candidate who favors “comprehensive immigration reform” and a V.P. candidate with a Mexican born wife and their bi-cultural Son “P” stumping on the campaign trail.
I shudder at the thought that McCain’s campaign strategists would possibly read your blog and specially this post, because if your scenario plays out, it’s a potent formula for McCain’s campaign, one that surely would throw the Democrats for a loop. I concur with you that if that were to happen, I really…really…hope that Obama or Clinton would make that to New Mexico and consider what Gov. Bill Ricardson would bring to their ticket.
I concur. It is an excellent piece and you perfectly provide the perspective of where a backdoor Republican win is possible in light of the internal racial backbiting we’re seeing between Clinton and Obama.
Though I agree with Tony that this would tip off McCain’s campaign strategists, I also feel Clinton and Obama’s campaign managers need to see it too to get a heads-up.
Great work!
Thanks Tony. If it were to play out, I doubt this post had anything to do with it, but if I do get credit for it, well … I won’t turn it down either. But I really doubt it because last year, James Carville also said that Jeb Bush would be the nominee. He didn’t say the presidential nominee, just the nominee. While severing on a CNN panel, he told the panel audience the reason Jeb would be nominee – he was a successful governor in Florida, he has the support of social conservatives, and he speaks Spanish.
True, Carville tends to leave a bad taste in people’s mouth, much like Hillary Clinton does, so it is easy for people to disregard his prediction. Given that, it is easy for people to overlook whom he is married too, Mary Matalin.
Matalin is very close to the Bush family. Remember her name even popped up in the whole Valerie Plame scandal. Not only that, she also was a member of the White House Iraq Group, the group that was charged with the task of convincing us that Saddam Hussein had WMDs and how he refused to cooperate with United Nations weapons inspectors.
Sure, Matalin and Carville have said they don’t talk politics at home, but I wouldn’t be surprised if something was mentioned around the dinner table by accident. It is only natural. My sister is a medical doctor and she is a stickler when it comes to patient confidentiality. Just mentioning a first name, she feels like she committed a mortal sin. But the fact is even she has one of those fallible moments and slips.
Or she could have purposefully it slip so Carville floats the idea in public and see public reactions. Whatever the reason, he did throw the name out there despite the fact many Americans do have “Bush fatigue.”
Hopefully, the Hillary and Obama strategists are also reading this blog and do take this post to heart. I would rather look at all possibilities now, than pay for it later.
John McCain took pies in the face for pushing the immigration reform with Kennedy. Now that he won, he is continuing his “humane immigration” platform as the Republican nominee. I’m already hearing from the Barack Obama supporters and the black citizens of our society that they think immigrants are taking American jobs! Pfft! As if! Since when do we see our fellow black citizens currently working the fields? Why do we see Latino immigrants working the fields? Because they have no choice to get on welfare and take advantage of the government system, and the only choice they have to feed their families is to work hard and work their fingers to the bone. What’s my point to this whole story? Vote Juan McCain. A man who proved himself to stand alone on this issue when others were afraid of the issue. I for one would rather believe McCain over some junior Senator who flip flopped on the immigration issue and didn’t take pies in the face for Latino Causa.
One more additional note: Be cautious with regard to who is supporting Obama. Unions support Obama — the same unions who are against NAFTA and free trade agreements. Unions have a restrictionist mentality, and this is a concern to me. Democrats owned the House and the Senate in 2006 and did they pass immigration reform? Hell no they didn’t. Pelosi and her ilk used and continue to use immigration as a political football.
PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW IS IT OK FOR THE REPUBLICANS TO OK PALIN S DAUGHTER PREGNANCY WHILE PALIN ADVOCATES NO SEX AND NO CONDOMS, SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT WITH THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, ALSO HOW ARE THEY LOOKING TO GET THE HISPANIC VOTE WHILE GOING AGAINST THEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ANOTHER BUSH ON THE MAKING IF YOU VOTE FOR HIM
I am a canidate who is the head of his household and hold strong Texas christian values for all. I have a proven record of listening to all in matters of community, family, and reaching the dreams that founded our country. please review my web site and make informed choices for our local governments, based on people not party.
correction , sorry, jefftlyon.homestead.com
Here’s what Republicans need to think about: In four to eight years, American born and Nationalized children of Hispanics whose families have been persecuted by Republicans, will be able to vote.
I for one, will NEVER AGAIN, consider voting for a Republican.
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