With the conclusion of this election, the number crunching started, Greg of Greg’s Opinion and Kuff of Off the Kuff has provided some precinct data analysis on this issue. I am writing because I am disturbed how some people within the Harris County Democratic Party are suggesting that the low turnout of Latino voters caused some Democrats to lose their race. In other words, turn the whole county blue. As a son of two statisticians, I am taking the liberty to do my own in depth analysis of the Latino vote.

No doubt that Latinos turned out in record numbers at the polls, claiming their spot as a political force to be reckoned with. Earlier in the year, NDN President Simon Rosenberg had projected that 14 million Hispanics would be registered to vote, and 12 million are likely to vote, which would translate to Hispanics comprising 10% of the overall vote in the next presidential election. Rosenberg was very close.

According to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) roughly 9.6 million to 11 million Latinas/os voted in the election, up from 7.8 million in the 2004 presidential contest. In Texas, especially in Harris County, Latino turnout did not turnout like many would have hoped. While we might be disappointed with the turnout, however, we also have to keep in mind that in Houston, Latinos have notoriously been weak at the ballot box. The truth is, people have a tendency to confuse voting behavior with voter turnout.

This is where analyzing precinct level data can be relevant. If analyzed correctly, it can reveal the diversity of the population and political preferences that underlie support for the two major political parties. However, we must also be mindful of the limitations and pitfalls when it comes to analyzing data. Two locations may cast their vote for the Democratic candidate, but do so for different reasons. The meaning of a vote in one part of the county may have a total different meaning in another.

The Latino Vote
If the primary elections are an indicator of voter turnout in the 2008 presidential election, it is projected that Latinos will vote in large numbers, and perhaps swing the election. In Texas, Latinos made up 32% of the primary vote, up from 24% in 2004. In Harris County, the Latino population makes up 15 percent of the county’s electorate and at roughly 38.6% of its population, compared with the national average of 14.8 percent, according to the 2007 American Community Survey.

The county has one State Senate district, Senate District 6 (Sen. Gallegos) and four State Representatives districts - House District (HD) 140 (Rep-elect Armando Walle), 143 (Rep. Ana Hernandez), 145 (Rep-elect Carol Alvarado), and 148 (Rep. Jessica Farrar) - that are considered Majority-Hispanic districts. These majority-minority districts are spread throughout Harris County, with Baytown to the East and Spring Branch to the West. These districts spread to Houston Intercontinental Airport to the north, with parts of Pasadena on the southern boundary, except for Senate District 6, which reaches as far South to Pearland. This district also included the Houston Heights, South Houston, Galena Park, Jacinto City, the Aldine area, as well as the East End portion of the Houston Ship Channel.

According to the County Clerk, Harris County saw over 1 million voters participate in the national election. Without having the actual numbers, it is safe to say that roughly over 100,000 Latinos voted; suggesting that between 8% and 9% of all voters in the general election were Latino.

Table 1: Elections 08 Harris County

District	Registered	Ballots Cast	Turnout %
HD 140	45,008	18,530	41.17%
HD 143	44,390	17,745	39.98%
HD 145	45,985	20,854	45.35%
HD 148	60,153	34,740	57.75%
SD 6	234,186	109,960	46.95%

In Harris County, President-elect Barack Obama won by a margin of approximately 18,000 votes and over 50,000 votes for Democrat candidate Rick Noriega, therefore it is safe to assume if there were no Latino votes cast, President-elect Obama, Rick Noriega, and down ballot Democrats in Harris County would have gone to the Republican Party.

The data indicate that Latinos supported President-elect Barack Obama over Senator John McCain by a 2 to 1 margin, ranging between 58 to 62 percent of their votes for Obama, which mirrors the exit poll data published by CNN. Essentially, there is no indication that Latinos would not support a black candidate. Note, most reports do not include undervotes nor the results from third party, independent, or write-in candidates. For this post, I choose not to make these adjustments because it would a provide clear picture.

Table 2: Elections 08 - President’s Race

District	Ballots Cast	McCain	Obama	McCain %	Obama %
HD 140	18,530	6,407	11,491	34.58%	62.01%
HD 143	17,745	6,742	10,327	37.99%	58.20%
HD 145	20,854	7,590	12,551	36.40%	60.19%
HD 148	34,740	13,502	20,307	38.87%	58.45%
SD 6	109,960	37,629	68,924	34.22%	62.68%

The fact that Obama received above of the 60% of the Hispanic vote is impressive, considering local Democrats practically ignored using any Spanish-language TV.

What occurred in Harris County, mirrors 10 million Hispanic voters came out to vote, and of those who voted, 6 out of 10 cast their vote for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party. For somebody to claim, we won’t support a Black candidate is not only ludicrous but dangerous. In comparing the 2004 Presidential race, only one district (HD 143), Kerry received more support than Obama, the rest showed improved support for the Presidential candidate.

Table 3: Comparison between the 2008 and 2004 Elections 08

District	Obama	Kerry	Diff	McCain	Bush	Diff
HD 140	11,491	10,458	1,033	6,407	7,899	(1,492)
HD 143	10,327	10,629	(302)	6,742	8,255	(1,513)
HD 145	12,551	11,876	675	7,590	8,946	(1,356)
HD 148	20,307	17,839	2,468	13,502	12,785	717
SD 6	68,924	63,780	5,144	37,629	42,844	(5,215)

Surprisingly, only one district (HD 145) showed a noticeable increase in Republican support, while the three state representative districts loss a considerable Republican support. The “Gonzales Effect,” the appointment of Gonzales to the Attorney General post to appeal to Latino voters, could explain why the three state representative districts had a sudden drop of Republican support this year in comparison to the 2004 election. However, the “Gonzales Effect,” does not explain why HD 148 had an increase in votes during this election. There are a lot of factors that could play, such as suburban-to-urban migration, construction of new homes and apartment developments in rundown neighborhoods, whatever the reason, this one district to keep an eye in the future.

Lee Brown-Orlando Sanchez Mayoral Race
Sadly, people bring up Lee Brown’s run-off race against Orlando Sanchez as proof that Latinos will never support a black candidate. In November 2001, Orlando Sanchez came within 10,000 votes of being elected the first Latino mayor in the history of Houston. Brown had 165,865 votes (52%), to Sanchez’s 155,164 (48%).

Oftentimes, political junkies, party leaders, and academia are quick to cut corners to reach a conclusion. One of the problems in trying to investigate which strategy works best in garnering Hispanic support; external factors do play a role in the equation. When it comes to Lee Brown-Orlando Sanchez race, this is no different.

In Houston, our mayoral races are technically nonpartisan. While it is true, it is easy to tell which side of the aisle a candidate falls, we do have to keep in mind, there is a large majority of people who knows less about the US political system then we like to think.

One has to remember this was a re-election. Yet, it was the Hispanic vote that contributed to Mayor Lee Brown, Houston’s first African-American mayor, 6 percentage points win over Rob Mosbacher Jr., a businessman and son of a former commerce secretary in the Bush White House. According to an exit poll by Robert M. Stein of Rice University, Brown had won with 97 percent of the black vote, 66 percent of the Hispanic and 23 percent of the Anglo. Hispanics were an estimated 10.3 percent of the total on that Election Day, in a race that also included former Councilwoman Gracie Saenz, the first Hispanic in the City of Houston’s history to be elected to an at large position on the City Council.

So what happened in 2001? What made the infamous Lee Brown-Orlando Sanchez mayoral race different? Sanchez campaigned on a platform that a Latino should finally be elected as mayor of Houston. Sanchez was exploiting the tensions that were finally building up in Houston. Brown had two strikes against him. One, he was a Clinton insider and he was a former police chief of Houston. The Clinton administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration after 1996 was viewed negatively by many immigrant rights organizations in Texas.

At that time, the Houston police department was under scrutiny for their actions in heavily Latino neighborhoods. In part, this was the result of a collaborative effort between Houston PD and the INS in conducting “street sweeps” to find and deport undocumented immigrants. This lead to tensions increased between Latinos and the police department, in 1998 when six Houston police officers shot Pedro Oregon, a Mexican immigrant, was nine times in the back, twice in the head and once through his left hand.

Before George W. Bush was inaugurated for his second term as Governor of Texas, Karl Rove foresaw that Latino voters was crucial if Republicans were ever to win an election. What occurred in Houston, was Rove’s test case because capturing the Hispanic voters “was [their] mission and [their] goal.”

With the national Republican Party pouring money into Orlando Sanchez’s race, it is obvious that Karl Rove was involved. During the campaign Orlando Sanchez used his immigrant status to his advantage to muster up ethnic pride. Not only that, Sanchez was riding on the coattails of Bush’s wartime popularity. In the last five days before the Dec 1 runoff, the RNC was spending $200,000 a day to promote Orlando Sanchez’s endorsements by President George W. Bush, former president George H. W. Bush, then New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and other eminent Republicans.

The idea that Latinos would never support a Black candidate is a myth. It is disingenuous to assume the entire Latino community should have known the incumbent Mayor Lee Brown was a Democrat and his challenger, Orlando Sanchez, was Republican. By accepting this as fact, it absolves the local party of any responsibility and puts the blame on an entire community.

With the growth of the Latino electorate, both Democrats and Republicans are now investing time and resources in courting Latino voters in contrast to past elections when Latinos were largely ignored. While is vital to understanding the election prospects of both parties for the foreseeable future, at same time, it is vitally important not to jump to conclusions without looking at all the facts.

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